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Which is better? BND or AGG?

The US 10-year treasury yield has reached at 2007-2008 years level, which is about 16 years ago. From a technical point of view, it is a buy. Then there are 2 bond ETFs that I am interested in. There are BND and AGG. They are very similar in nature.

US 10 year Treasury Bond, chart, prices - FT.com

Expense Ratio

BND: 0.03%
AGG: 0.03%

The same.

Turnover Rate

BND: 40.00%
AGG: 104.0%

BNG seems better.

Historical Performance Comparison

Investment duration: 5 years with no tax on dividends

BND wins a little with winning rate of 57.5%, but AGG wins 0.012% in return.



Investment duration: 5 years with 30% tax on dividends

AGG wins a little with winning rate of 65% and a 0.079% difference on average.



Investment duration: 10 years with no tax on dividends

AGG wins a little with winning rate of 67% and a 0.024% difference on average.



Investment duration: 10 years with 30%  tax on dividends

AGG wins a little with winning rate of 99% and a 0.095% difference on average.


Conclusion

AGG's turnover rate is much higher than BND. For historical returns, AGG almost always beats BND.

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