I am not sure, so let's assume I withdraw 4% of my savings at the high right before the 2008 Housing Bubble or the 2000 Recession. And assume my savings are IVV, an S&P 500 tracking ETF.
Simulation Setup
2008 Case
- High: Oct 09, 2007; IVV was traded at $156.79
- My fund has $1k, which is made up of 6.37796 shares of IVV
- Start withdrawing $40 from the fund on Oct 09, 2007
- * means dividend reinvestment
- All prices are IVV's daily closing price.
2008 Case Calculation
My fund has grown back to $1,011.77 on Jun 24, 2015, bigger than what I started. I don't think I will use up my fund anytime soon.
| Date | IVV Shares | IVV Price | Total Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 09, 2007 | 6.12284 | $156.79 | $960.00 |
| Dec 27, 2007 | 6.15582* | $148.13 | $911.86 |
| Mar 25, 2008 | 6.18716* | $135.32 | $837.25 |
| Jun 24, 2008 | 6.21969* | $131.46 | $817.64 |
| Sep 25, 2008 | 6.25455* | $121.15 | $757.74 |
| Oct 09, 2008 | 5.81925 | $91.89 | $534.73 |
| Dec 24, 2008 | 5.86361* | $86.85 | $509.25 |
| Mar 25, 2009 | 5.90365* | $81.57 | $481.56 |
| Jun 23, 2009 | 5.93526* | $89.64 | $532.04 |
| Sep 23, 2009 | 5.96450* | $106.56 | $635.58 |
| Oct 09, 2008 | 5.59258 | $107.55 | $601.48 |
| Dec 24, 2009 | 5.62219* | $112.93 | $634.91 |
| Mar 25, 2010 | 5.64607* | $117.01 | $660.65 |
| Jun 23, 2010 | 5.67163* | $109.58 | $621.50 |
| Sep 24, 2010 | 5.70247* | $115.14 | $656.58 |
| Oct 08, 2010 | 5.36036 | $116.92 | $626.73 |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 5.38655* | $126.09 | $679.19 |
| Mar 25, 2011 | 5.41104* | $131.73 | $712.80 |
| Jun 23, 2011 | 5.43647* | $128.75 | $699.95 |
| Sep 26, 2011 | 5.46585* | $116.59 | $637.26 |
| Oct 07, 2011 | 5.12123 | $116.07 | $594.42 |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 5.15258* | $125.80 | $648.19 |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 5.17550* | $142.06 | $735.23 |
| Jun 19, 2012 | 5.19977* | $136.27 | $708.57 |
| Sep 25, 2012 | 5.22843* | $144.76 | $756.87 |
| Oct 09, 2012 | 4.95226 | $144.84 | $717.29 |
| Dec 19, 2012 | 4.98424* | $144.03 | $717.88 |
| Mar 25, 2013 | 5.00801* | $155.82 | $780.35 |
| Jun 26, 2013 | 5.03315* | $160.97 | $810.19 |
| Sep 24, 2013 | 5.05779* | $170.54 | $862.56 |
| Oct 09, 2013 | 4.81754 | $166.49 | $802.07 |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 4.84270* | $183.59 | $889.07 |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 4.86416* | $187.49 | $911.98 |
| Jun 24, 2014 | 4.88687* | $196.00 | $957.83 |
| Sep 24, 2014 | 4.90959* | $200.89 | $986.28 |
| Oct 09, 2014 | 4.70330 | $193.90 | $911.97 |
| Dec 24, 2014 | 4.72809* | $209.29 | $989.54 |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 4.75096* | $207.19 | $984.35 |
| Jun 24, 2015 | 4.77746* | $211.78 | $1,011.77 |
2000 Case
- High: Jul 14, 2000; IVV was traded at $150.98
- My fund has $1k, which is made up of 6.62339 shares of IVV
- Start withdrawing $40 from the fund on Jul 14, 2000
- * means dividend reinvestment
- All prices are IVV's daily closing price.
2000 Case Calculation
My fund has grown back to $1,029.41 on Jun 10, 2021, bigger than what I started. I don't think I will use up my fund anytime soon.
| Date | IVV Shares | IVV Price | Total Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 2000 | 6.35845 | $150.98 | $960.00 |
| Sep 20, 2000 | 6.37060* | $144.98 | $923.61 |
| Dec 13, 2000 | 6.39120* | $135.78 | $867.80 |
| Mar 12, 2001 | 6.40439* | $117.78 | $754.31 |
| Jun 11, 2001 | 6.42231* | $125.77 | $807.73 |
| Jun 14, 2001 | 6.09339 | $121.61 | $741.02 |
| Oct 02, 2001 | 6.11609* | $105.51 | $645.31 |
| Dec 17, 2001 | 6.13436* | $113.85 | $698.40 |
| Mar 11, 2002 | 6.14974* | $116.89 | $718.84 |
| Jun 17, 2002 | 6.17183* | $103.84 | $640.88 |
| Jul 15, 2002 | 5.73794 | $92.19 | $528.98 |
| Sep 16, 2002 | 5.76321* | $89.47 | $515.63 |
| Dec 16, 2002 | 5.78993* | $91.25 | $528.33 |
| Mar 10, 2003 | 5.81388* | $81.00 | $470.95 |
| Jun 16, 2003 | 5.83493* | $101.36 | $591.43 |
| Jul 15, 2003 | 5.43696 | $100.51 | $546.47 |
| Sep 15, 2003 | 5.45946* | $101.72 | $555.34 |
| Dec 15, 2003 | 5.48565* | $107.14 | $587.73 |
| Dec 16, 2003 | 5.55054* | $107.74 | $598.02 |
| Mar 29, 2004 | 5.56971* | $112.64 | $627.37 |
| Jun 28, 2004 | 5.58959* | $113.48 | $634.31 |
| Jul 15, 2004 | 5.22842 | $110.75 | $579.05 |
| Sep 27, 2004 | 5.25031* | $110.83 | $581.89 |
| Dec 27, 2004 | 5.28707* | $120.69 | $638.10 |
| Mar 28, 2005 | 5.32049* | $117.23 | $623.72 |
| Jun 21, 2005 | 5.33744* | $121.48 | $648.39 |
| Jul 15, 2005 | 5.01187 | $122.86 | $615.76 |
| Sep 26, 2005 | 5.03265* | $121.56 | $611.77 |
| Dec 23, 2005 | 5.05303* | $126.95 | $641.48 |
| Mar 27, 2006 | 5.07313* | $130.25 | $660.78 |
| Jun 23, 2006 | 5.09462* | $124.67 | $635.15 |
| Jul 14, 2006 | 4.77152 | $123.80 | $590.71 |
| Sep 27, 2006 | 4.79357* | $133.96 | $642.15 |
| Dec 21, 2006 | 4.81748* | $141.96 | $683.89 |
| Mar 26, 2007 | 4.83901* | $143.42 | $694.01 |
| Jun 29, 2007 | 4.86045* | $150.51 | $732.55 |
| Jul 16, 2007 | 4.60247 | $155.05 | $713.61 |
| Sep 26, 2007 | 4.62320* | $152.55 | $705.27 |
| Dec 27, 2007 | 4.64811* | $148.13 | $688.52 |
| Mar 25, 2008 | 4.67178* | $135.32 | $628.13 |
| Jun 24, 2008 | 4.69424* | $131.46 | $617.10 |
| Jul 14, 2008 | 4.36930 | $123.10 | $537.86 |
| Sep 25, 2008 | 4.39379* | $121.15 | $532.31 |
| Dec 24, 2008 | 4.42728* | $86.85 | $384.51 |
| Mar 25, 2009 | 4.45751* | $81.57 | $363.60 |
| Jun 23, 2009 | 4.48212* | $89.64 | $401.78 |
| Jul 14, 2009 | 4.04237 | $90.96 | $367.69 |
| Sep 23, 2009 | 4.06229* | $106.56 | $432.88 |
| Dec 24, 2009 | 4.08380* | $112.93 | $461.18 |
| Mar 25, 2010 | 4.10115* | $117.01 | $479.88 |
| Jun 23, 2010 | 4.11971* | $109.58 | $451..44 |
| Jul 14, 2010 | 3.75621 | $110.04 | $413.33 |
| Sep 24, 2010 | 3.77663* | $115.14 | $434.84 |
| Dec 23, 2010 | 3.79508* | $126.09 | $478.52 |
| Mar 25, 2011 | 3.81234* | $131.73 | $502.20 |
| Jun 23, 2011 | 3.83025* | $128.75 | $493.14 |
| Jul 14, 2011 | 3.52586 | $131.41 | $463.33 |
| Sep 26, 2011 | 3.54491* | $116.59 | $413.30 |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 3.56661* | $125.80 | $448.68 |
| Mar 26, 2012 | 3.58248* | $142.06 | $508.93 |
| Jun 19, 2012 | 3.59928* | $136.27 | $490.47 |
| Jul 13, 2012 | 3.30581 | $136.30 | $450.58 |
| Sep 25, 2012 | 3.32403* | $144.76 | $481.19 |
| Dec 19, 2012 | 3.34549* | $144.03 | $481.85 |
| Mar 25, 2013 | 3.36144* | $155.82 | $523.78 |
| Jun 26, 2013 | 3.37831* | $160.97 | $543.81 |
| Jul 15, 2013 | 3.14183 | $169.15 | $531.44 |
| Sep 24, 2013 | 3.15721* | $170.54 | $538.43 |
| Dec 23, 2013 | 3.17370* | $183.59 | $582.66 |
| Mar 25, 2014 | 3.18777* | $187.49 | $597.67 |
| Jun 24, 2014 | 3.20265* | $196.00 | $627.72 |
| Jul 14, 2014 | 3.00149 | $198.85 | $596.85 |
| Sep 24, 2014 | 3.01544* | $200.89 | $605.77 |
| Dec 24, 2014 | 3.03133* | $209.29 | $634.43 |
| Mar 25, 2015 | 3.04599* | $207.19 | $631.10 |
| Jun 24, 2015 | 3.06298* | $211.78 | $648.68 |
| Jul 14, 2015 | 2.87427 | $211.97 | $609.26 |
| Sep 25, 2015 | 2.89031* | $193.85 | $560.29 |
| Dec 24, 2015 | 2.90690* | $206.83 | $601.23 |
| Dec 29, 2015 | 2.90955* | $208.51 | $606.67 |
| May 23, 2016 | 2.91121* | $206.26 | $600.47 |
| Jun 21, 2016 | 2.92507* | $209.62 | $613.15 |
| Jul 14, 2016 | 2.74104 | $217.35 | $595.77 |
| Sep 26, 2016 | 2.75507* | $215.45 | $593.58 |
| Dec 21, 2016 | 2.77088* | $227.18 | $629.49 |
| Mar 24, 2017 | 2.78303* | $235.39 | $655.10 |
| Jun 27, 2017 | 2.79582* | $243.04 | $679.50 |
| Jul 14, 2017 | 2.63394 | $247.10 | $650.85 |
| Sep 26, 2017 | 2.64743* | $250.75 | $663.84 |
| Dec 19, 2017 | 2.65995* | $269.13 | $715.87 |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 2.67226* | $265.47 | $709.40 |
| Jun 26, 2018 | 2.68478* | $273.47 | $734.21 |
| Jul 13, 2018 | 2.54265 | $281.43 | $715.58 |
| Sep 26, 2018 | 2.55377* | $292.02 | $745.75 |
| Dec 17, 2018 | 2.56817* | $255.65 | $656.55 |
| Mar 20, 2019 | 2.57841* | $283.39 | $730.70 |
| Jun 17, 2019 | 2.59423* | $289.74 | $751.65 |
| Jul 15, 2019 | 2.46198 | $302.46 | $744.65 |
| Sep 24, 2019 | 2.47425* | $297.51 | $736.11 |
| Dec 16, 2019 | 2.49005* | $319.32 | $795.12 |
| Mar 25, 2020 | 2.50545* | $247.47 | $620.03 |
| Jun 15, 2020 | 2.51574* | $306.89 | $772.06 |
| Jul 14, 2020 | 2.39081 | $320.17 | $765.47 |
| Sep 23, 2020 | 2.40193* | $323.75 | $777.62 |
| Dec 14, 2020 | 2.41254* | $364.35 | $879.01 |
| Mar 25, 2021 | 2.42063* | $391.12 | $946.76 |
| Jun 10, 2021 | 2.42762 | $424.04 | $1,029.41 |
Conclusion
Withdrawing 4% from a fund made of pure IVV during highs of 2000 and 2008 would not have made me penniless.
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