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Will I Spend All Of My SPY Portfolio?

I have done a research on whether I would use up all my money selling 4% from an all SPY portolio starting from the peaks of past major financial crises of 2000 and 2008/. The answe I have found is no, I would not have used up all of my retirement fund.

Now, I am also curious whethre I would have used up my fund during different periods of time and with different rates of withdrawing. I built this app.

APP

Insctructions

  • This calculator uses actual historical SPY data.
  • Annually means there are 282 trading days every year.
  • Withdrawal rate is per interval, meaning a 4%withdrawal rate will also apply to monthly interval if selected. If you want a 4% annual withdrawal rate but want to withdraw monthly, divide 4% by 12 and put the result into the Withdrawal Rate input.
  • Stocks are assume to be tradable in very small amounts as you can buy or sell 0.001 shares of SPY ETF.
Withdrawing Interval:
Iniital Portfolio Value: $
Withdrawal Rate: %
Tax Rate on Dividend: %
Starting Date:
You have selected 1999-12-21
You will withdraw $400 every 282 days.

Data Detail

Run 100 Times

Being Broke Cases

Start Date Broke Date WR FQ

Comparing with Retiring with a all cash

Withdrawing up to 5 %, SPY has never been broke , with all cash, withdrawing 6% means 100/6 = 16.67 years of life supporting money

Withdrawing 6%

the SP500 retirement fund has been broke one time if you retired aroung 2000-04-07 and got broke around 2020-06-12, which was 20 years in span.

Withdrawing 7%

Cash can be withdrawing 100/7 = 14.28 years.
Times when SP500 retirement fund gets broke and a all-cash one does not:
  • Retired on 2000-03-21 and got broke on 2013-09-04 which is 13.5 years

Withdrawing 8%

Cash can be withdrawing 100/8 = 12.5 years.
Times when SP500 retirement fund gets broke and a all-cash one does not:
  • Retired on 2000-06-30 and got broke on 2011-09-16 which is 11.3 years

Withdrawing 9%

Cash can be withdrawing 100/9 = 12.1 years.
Times when SP500 retirement fund gets broke and a all-cash one does not:
  • Retired on 2000-09-11 and got broke on 2010-10-14 which is 10.3 years
  • Retired on 2000-08-18 and got broke on 2010-09-23 which is 10.1 years

Withdrawing 10%

Cash can be withdrawing 100/10 = 10 years.
Times when SP500 retirement fund gets broke and a all-cash one does not:
  • Retired on 2000-05-09 and got broke on 2009-04-30 which is 8.9 years
  • Retired on 2000-08-01 and got broke on 2009-07-23 which is 8.9 years

Conclusion

Retired withdrawing 4%, we should be fine. But wuth a withdrawal rate higher than 6%, we might need some cash.
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