Stock returns following a normal distribution is the foundation of most financial engineering. Opting pricing model, Black–Scholes model, is one example.
Stock return following a normal distribution makes sense in a way that economic activities affect economic growth in a geometric manner, or a multiplicative manner. In other world
For example, if I can invest $100 to buy a factory that can rake in another $100 in a year. The next year I can buy another factory, using the $100 made by the first one. The second year, I can make $200. The third year, I can make $400.
The increase in how much I can make is not linear, it is geometric. By the way, this example also explains what happens behind compound returns.
Stock return following a normal distribution?
Back to how stock returns following a normal distribution. We see from the
above example that the increase of how much money I can make doubled every
year, which means my value, or stock price, should double every year if PE
ration stays the same, right?
Now let's look at the "double" part. The above example does not account for
anything that can happen to how my business. If in the first year. I
can only make $80, $60 or $120. The reinvestment back into my own
business could be random.
Then, we say the returns of my business are random and follow a normal
distribution. At the same time, by definition stock prices follow a log-normal
distribution.
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