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LQD's Expected Loss During its Downturn

This article is about risk analysis of LQD. First, I will build an app that will randomly generate investment start date and end date given an investment span. The user has the freedom to set a tax rate on dividends.

With this app, I am looking for given an investment span, what is the chance that LQD's return is negative, and if it is, what is the expected loss. This will help me decide how much cash or its equivalent I need to keep when retired.

The data range is from 2002-07-30 to 2022-07-22 and  each year is assumed to have 252 trading days.

APP

Truncated Data:
Start Date:
End Date:
Tax Rate on Dividends: %
Investment Span: days.
Investing in LQD for 252 days:

Total Distribution

TImes when Lost are greater than 5%

Start Date End Date Span Return(%)
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