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TLT's Expected Loss During Market Downturn

This article is about risk analysis of TLT. First, I will build an app that will randomly generate investment start date and end date given an investment span. The user has the freedom to set a tax rate on dividends.

With this app, I am looking for given an investment span, what is the chance that TLT's return is negative, and if it is, what is the expected loss. This will help me decide how much cash or its equivalent I need to keep when retired.

The data range is from 2007-04-11 to 2022-07-22 and  each year is assumed to have 252 trading days.

APP

Truncated Data:
Start Date:
End Date:
Tax Rate on Dividends: %
Investment Span: days.
Investing in TLT for 252 days:

Total Distribution

TImes when Lost are greater than 5%

Start Date End Date Span Return(%)

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